It's been a rough weekend. On Friday, ten or fifteen minutes after debarking a bus in West Hollywood, I realized that I'd left my Stone Mountain Cargo purse on the bus. So far, I haven't recovered it, although I am hopeful.
Meanwhile, as you know, there's been a dual celebration happening since the beginning of last week, what with Dr. King's national birthday holiday celebration today, and the inauguration of our first black president, Barack Hussein Obama, tomorrow, January 20, 2009. I will post my thoughts on the moment within the next 24-48 hours, however; as is tradition here on Global Ghetto (check the archives for previous years), I'm posting
Foreign Policy's Top 10 Stories Missed in 2008. Enjoy.
1. The Surge in Afghanistan Starts Early 
Along with reducing troop levels in Iraq, President-elect Barack Obama has pledged to dramatically increase the U.S. presence in Afghanistan in a strategy similar to the “surge,” which proved so effective in reducing violence in Iraq. Although the wisdom of such an approach will surely be hotly debated in the coming months, the truth is that the Afghanistan surge has, to a certain extent, already begun. In the first half of 2008, the Bush administration boosted U.S. forces in Afghanistan by more than 21,000, or nearly 85 percent, with significant increases in the presence of Air Force and Marine personnel. Even reluctant NATO members have pledged to kick in a few thousand troops.
The United States has also been on a building spree, planning a $100 million airfield expansion in Kandahar and a $50 million prison facility near Bagram Air Base. In requesting supplemental funding from Congress to build a $62 million ammunition storage facility near Bagram, the Army said the base “must be able to provide for a long term, steady state presence which is able to surge to meet theater contingency requirements.”
Of course, counterinsurgency is about more than just boots on the ground and new facilities. In Iraq, efforts to reach out to tribal leaders and nationalist insurgents and turn them against local elements of al Qaeda were crucial. U.S. commanders have shied away from taking similar steps in Afghanistan, but President Hamid Karzai has been pushing for exactly this type of engagement, holding a jirga of tribal leaders in Kabul and even reaching out to Taliban leader Mullah Mohammed Omar. So, if Obama takes office with a plan to pacify Afghanistan through more troops and reaching out to local leaders, he might well discover that he already has a head start.
2. Colombian Coca Production IncreasesCoca is a serious destabilizer—keeping Colombia’s rebels armed and the country’s progress in check. But after almost a decade, U.S.-assisted efforts to reduce the crop’s production in Colombia haven’t just failed; they’ve been downright counterproductive. Plan Colombia was meant to improve security, stamp out drug cultivation, and improve law and order after a decades-long conflict with leftist militants. But coca cultivation rose 15 percent between 2000 and 2006, an October 2008 U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) study found. A separate U.N. study found that in 2007 alone, the area of land hosting coca crops rose 27 percent. To put it mildly, something is not working.
Coca, the base crop for cocaine, has funded the operations of various paramilitaries and the rebel group FARC for decades. Although Colombian military operations have severely hampered FARC’s activities during the last several years, the drug trade continues apace. Aerial spraying and manual eradication have had temporary effects, but coca farmers tend to grow the lucrative crop again because there’s rarely an equally profitable alternative. The GAO reckons that many farmers have moved to more remote areas to avoid the eradication efforts. Meanwhile, the market value of coca rose by roughly $450 per kilogram in 2007 to more than $2,000.
The United States has spent $6 billion on Plan Colombia, but Colombia still supplies 90 percent of U.S. cocaine. Time for a rethink on the drug war?
3. The Next Darfur Heats UpThe conflict in Darfur still may not be getting the attention it deserves, but another crisis in Sudan threatens to become the country’s newest humanitarian catastrophe. The flash point is Southern Kordofan, a state created in 2005 to encompass the Nuba Mountains, just north of the autonomous southern zone. Central government forces, South Sudanese forces, and local groups are all arming and recruiting troops with the hope of securing victory in the upcoming local elections. As the Small Arms Survey, a research organization, documented in August, “[D]iscontent … is turning to anger, and many now view war in the Nuba Mountains as inevitable.”
The storm brewing in Nuba country looks much like the ongoing tempest in Darfur. The Nuba, a tribal group comprising more than 50 indigenous African ethnicities, have long been

marginalized under Sudan’s Arab-dominated government, and many took up arms against it during the 1980s civil war. When a peace agreement ended the North-South conflict in 2005, many Nuba felt the Southern Sudanese government sold them out to the North in order to gain oil concessions. Now, their patience is running thin. The International Crisis Group (ICG) reported in October that hundreds have died in disputes over land and grazing rights in recent years. As in Darfur, violence has broken out between Nuba farmers and Arab nomads, both of whom covet the same fertile land.
With national elections scheduled for 2009, forces on all sides are accused of seeking support through intimidation and strategic ethnic cleansing. Government forces in the region have grown dramatically, and Arab supremacy movements, similar to those that spawned the janjaweed militias in Darfur, are springing up.
It all looks ominously familiar. “When you look at what’s failed to happen in Darfur,” warns Mark Schneider of ICG, “you don’t have a lot of confidence that Sudan is going to deal with this any better.”
4. The United States Helps India Build a Missile ShieldThe controversy over U.S. missile defense these days tends to focus on Russia’s increasingly strident objections to proposed U.S. installations in Eastern Europe. But a more volatile situation might be brewing farther east. On Feb. 27, 2008, after two days of meetings in New Delhi, U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates quietly announced negotiations between the United States and India to develop a missile defense program on Indian soil. Although still in its early stages, a missile shield on the subcontinent could have long-term implications for U.S.-China relations and regional stability.

Just as proposed U.S. rocket interceptors in Poland stoke tension between the United States and Russia, a U.S.-facilitated missile shield in India could become a flash point for great-power struggles for decades to come. The plans are likely to add to fears in Beijing that the United States is attempting to temper China’s growing influence in Asia. Gates’s trip to New Delhi was part of a tour of three of the region’s democracies—India, Australia, and Indonesia—which could be used to counter China’s regional ambitions if relations with the United States turn frosty. Even more troubling, an Indian missile shield risks triggering a crisis in the nuclear rivalry between India and Pakistan.
The biggest winner? Probably Lockheed Martin. The defense contractor has already entered into talks with the Indian military about selling the country its Patriot missile defense system. “The US has spent billions of dollars” developing the Patriot system, said Lockheed Martin Vice President Dennis Cavin last January. “We reckon that India need not spend so much money on developing its own system when we can help.”
5. Russia Makes a Play for AfricaChina’s recent adventures in Africa have been well-publicized, as have the West’s attempts to keep up. Now add one more player to the mix: Russia is moving into Africa in a big way, snatching up gas and oil deals, with an eye on winning even greater leverage over the global energy market.
In September, Russia’s state-controlled energy monopoly Gazprom obtained gas concessions in Nigeria, which is thought to hold one of the world’s largest natural gas supplies. In addition to offering such development-aid carrots as electricity generation, Gazprom agreed to help the West African country fund a 2,700-mile trans-Saharan pipeline to Europe.

Gazprom, in a joint venture with Italy’s Eni, is also looking to finance a pipeline from Libya that would carry natural gas under the Mediterranean. Russia offered to buy all Libyan gas and some of its oil exports. If the deal goes through, it would give Russia complete control over supply to the European Union. Russia has additional deals in Algeria, Angola, Egypt, and the Ivory Coast worth $3.5 billion and expected to be operational by 2010.
But it’s not just pipelines Russia wants—it’s also hearts and minds. Russia has canceled $20 billion in African debt and recently announced a $500 million aid package for African countries with no strings attached. Russia helped prevent sanctions on Zimbabwe from passing the U.N. Security Council a few months after Zimbabwe was opening a tourism office in Moscow.
All this has Europe very worried. If Russia controls natural gas supplies from the east—through Gazprom’s holdings in Central Asia—as well as the south, that would leave Europe surrounded, with little room to find alternative energy supplies. It was no coincidence that the EU offered $21 billion for the trans-Saharan pipeline just after the Georgia-Russia war. Let the great games begin.
6. Greenhouse Gas Comes from Solar Panels 
Think switching to solar energy will make you green? Think again. Many of the newest solar panels are manufactured with a gas that is 17,000 times more potent than carbon dioxide in contributing to global warming.
Nitrogen trifluoride, or NF3, is used for cleaning microcircuits during the manufacture of a host of modern electronics, including flat-screen TVs, iPhones, computer chips—and thin-film solar panels, the latest (and cheapest) generation of solar photovoltaics. (Time named the panels one of the best inventions of 2008.) Because industry estimates suggested that only about 2 percent of NF3 ever made it into the atmosphere, the chemical has been marketed as a cleaner alternative to other higher-emitting options. For the past decade, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has actively encouraged its use. NF3 also wasn’t deemed dangerous enough to be covered by the Kyoto Protocol, making it an attractive substitute for companies and signatory countries eager to lower their emissions footprints.
It turns out that NF3 might not be so green after all. “NF3 has a potential greenhouse impact larger than … even that of the world’s largest coal-fired power plants,” according to a June 2008 study by researchers at the University of California, Irvine. Because NF3 isn’t covered by Kyoto, few attempts have been made to measure it in the atmosphere. But last October, scientists at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography reported that four times more NF3 is present in the atmosphere than industry estimates suggest, and its concentration is rising 11 percent a year.
Compared with the damage caused by CO2 emissions, NF3 remains a blip because far less of it is emitted. But Ray Weiss, who led the Scripps team, thinks that, unless regulations require more complete greenhouse gas measurements, more unpleasant surprises will be in store. With NF3, he says, “We’re finding considerably more in the atmosphere than was expected. This [gas] won’t be the only example of that.”
7. Shanghai Steel Fails Basic Safety Tests
Shanghai’s futuristic skyline—the city has more than 900 high-rises, with hundreds more under construction—is one of the most potent symbols of China’s economic rise. But the materials undergirding all that growth might be shakier than anyone can imagine. In March, the English-language Shanghai Daily reported that fully half of the steel sold to construction companies in Shanghai’s wholesale markets failed basic quality tests. Nearly a quarter of the tested samples failed tension tests, meaning structures built with them would not be able to withstand earthquakes and would be more likely to decay over time.
Of the 52 batches of steel tested by the Shanghai Industrial and Commercial Administrative Bureau, 27 were too light to meet China’s legal standards. Some batches were nearly five times lighter than the legal standard, meaning that they were less than the weight of iron, steel’s primary ingredient. “If your steel is less than the weight of iron, that’s pretty incredible,” says Christopher Earls, professor of civil engineering at Cornell University. “That means you’re replacing the iron with something else, so what you have isn’t really steel at all.”
The bureau ordered construction sites using the inferior steel to halt work, but, troublingly, did not publicly reveal where it was being used. Adam Minter, a Shanghai-based journalist who blogged the story after it broke, asked, “What will happen to twenty-year home mortgages taken out on Shanghai apartments which will only last—structurally—for ten years? At some point, I’m pretty sure this is going to become an issue.” After the collapse of substandard schoolhouses during this year’s Sichuan earthquake, tremors of which were felt in Shanghai, the prospect of something similar happening to an urban high-rise isn’t an issue anyone should take lightly.
8. Aid to Georgia Finances Luxury Hotel in TbilisiIn September, the United States pledged $1 billion in aid to Georgia to help the country recover from its August war with Russia. The money was intended to “help Georgia sustain itself,” Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said. With several Georgian towns badly damaged by Russian bombing and 20,000 refugees from South Ossetia still unable to return home, there were seemingly many worthy causes for all that cash. So why was $176 million of the aid money earmarked for loans to businesses—including $30 million to a real estate developer for a luxury hotel: the 127,000-square-meter Park Hyatt in downtown Tbilisi, an area that was not at all damaged in the war? The 183-room, five-star hotel will include 70 luxury condominiums, a fine-dining restaurant, conference facilities, and a health spa with juice bar.

The Overseas Private Investment Corporation (OPIC), the U.S. government agency facilitating the loan, is also financing a $40 million office building across the street from the Georgian Parliament building and a $10 million renovation of a historic building into a convention center. The loans, OPIC President Robert Mosbacher told Eurasianet, were “a clear, unequivocal signal about the confidence we [the U.S. government] have in the future of this country.”
Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili’s ill-advised military operation in South Ossetia might have been a disaster for many of his people, but thanks to Uncle Sam, it seems to have turned out just fine for Tbilisi’s real estate developers.
9. For the First Time, U.S. Citizen Convicted of Torture AbroadSince 1994, the U.S. Department of Justice has had the right to prosecute U.S. citizens on U.S. soil for crimes of torture committed abroad. But it wasn’t until a highly unusual case this year that the law saw its first conviction. Charles “Chuckie” Taylor Jr., son of the former Liberian president, was convicted of torture, conspiracy, and possession of a firearm by a federal grand jury on Oct. 30. War crimes clearly run in the family. His father is currently on trial at The Hague.
The younger Taylor was born in Massachusetts and retained his U.S. citizenship after moving to Liberia when his father took office. He committed his crimes as head of the Anti-Terrorist Unit (known as the “Demon Forces”) of his father’s government from 1999 to 2002. Although his task was officially to protect Liberian officials, in practice, prosecutors said, Taylor tortured opposition members and political opponents using irons, hot wax, knives, electronic shockers, and firearms.
This case is the first application of the U.S. federal extraterritorial torture statute, passed in 1994 following the U.S. ratification of the U.N. Convention Against Torture. Human rights advocates hope it won’t be the last. Crucially, the law also gives the Justice Department authority to prosecute other countries’ citizens on U.S. soil for torture committed abroad. Several groups are pushing for prosecution of past human rights violators from Chile, El Salvador, Guatemala, and Haiti now residing in the United States.
Some speculate it could even open the door to prosecutions of Bush administration officials for engaging in torture overseas. “You would have to be able to prove that the individual official specifically was doing that,” explains Mark Schneider of the International Crisis Group. “Is it possible that law could do that? I think so.”
10. American Company Sells ‘Sonic Blasters’ to ChinaAfter the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre, the United States took action by imposing a strict arms embargo on China. So how, exactly, was it legal for a U.S. company to sell China a powerful tool to incapacitate and injure protesters in advance of the Olympic Games in Beijing?
Reporting from a Beijing police equipment expo in April, journalist David Hambling noticed a Long Range Acoustic Device (LRAD) produced by California-based American Technology Corporation (ATC) on prominent display. The LRAD works by emitting from a dish high-energy acoustic waves that are said to be, at close proximity, louder than a jet engine. It is capable of reaching 150 decibels, enough to incite panic, inflict pain, and even cause hearing loss among large crowds.

But is it a weapon? ATC euphemistically describes it as a “directed-sounds communications system,” but in a November 2008 article in Maritime Reporter and Engineering News, the company’s vice president boasted of how the U.S. Navy was increasingly using LRAD devices to “prevent terrorist incidents” and repel Somali pirates. When the embargo was enacted, such devices didn’t even exist. It remains to be seen whether nonlethal crowd-control systems will be included in future arms-control agreements.
The Chinese definitely have the LRAD, but as far as anyone knows, they haven’t employed it yet. Nor were there reports of its use during the Summer Olympics. Using dangerous sound weapons on peaceful protesters might seem draconian, but that, too, depends on the alternatives: “I also came across photos of the Chinese police practicing with flamethrowers before the Olympics, so LRAD would have let protesters off lightly,” says Hambling.